Cyberwar : how Russian hackers and trolls helped elect a president : what we don't, can't, and do know / Kathleen Hall Jamieson

Prologue Introduction Part One: Who Did It, Why, and How It May Have MatteredChapter One: How Do We Know that the Russians Meddled in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election?Chapter Two: A Theory of Communication that Posits EffectsPart Two: The Pre-Requisites of InfluenceChapter Three: Pre-Requisite One: Widespread MessagingChapter Four: Pre-Requisite Two: Messages Aligned with Trump's Electoral InterestsChapter Five: Pre-Requisite Three: Messages to Mobilize Veterans and White Christians, Demobilizing Blacks and Sanders' Supporters, Shifting Liberals to SteinChapter Six: Pre-Requisite Four: Well-Targeted ContentChapter Seven: Pre-Requisite Five: Persuasive AppealsPart Three: Exposure: How the Russians Affected the News and Debate Agendas in the Last Month of the Campaign Chapter Eight: The Russian Effect On Press Coverage in OctoberChapter Nine: The Effect of the Stolen Emails on the Last Two Presidential DebatesChapter Ten: The Russian Effect on the Media Agenda in the Last Days of the ElectionPart Four: What We Don't, Can't, and Do Know About How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect Donald J. TrumpAfterword: LessonsAppendicesAppendix One: Changes in Perceptions of Clinton and Trump in OctoberAppendix Two: Debate 2 and Debate 3 Exposure Effect on Candidate Trait EvaluationsAppendix Three: Association between Perception Changes and Vote IntentionsReferences

Introduction: US susceptibilities, troll and hacker synchronies, and my suppositions -- Part one: Who did it, why, and what research says about how it might matter. How do we know that Russian spies and saboteurs (aka hackers and trolls) intervened in the 2016 presidential election? ; A theory of communication that posits effects -- Part two: The prerequisites of troll influence. The first troll prerequisite: widespread messaging ; The second troll prerequisite: messages aligned with Trump's electoral interests ; The third troll prerequisite: mobilizing veterans, white Christians, demobilizing blacks and Sander's supporters, and shifting liberals to Stein ; The fourth troll prerequisite: persuasive appeals ; The fifth troll prerequisite: well-targeted content -- Part three: How the Russian affected the new and debate agendas in the last month of the campaign. The effect of Russian hacking on press coverage ; The effect of hacked content on the last two presidential debates ; The Russian effect on the media agenda in the last days of the election -- Part four: What we don't, can't, and do know about how Russian hackers and trolls helped elected Donald J. Trump. Afterword: Where does this leave us? -- Appendices: Evaluations of Clinton and Trump traits in October -- Appendix one: Changes in perceptions of Clinton and Trump in October -- Appendix two: Debate 2 and debate 3 exposure effect on candidate trait evaluations -- Appendix three: Association between perception changes and vote intentions -- Appendix four: Effect of traits on vote intention.

"In Cyberwar, Kathleen Hall Jamieson, who sifted through a vast amount of polling and voting data, is able to conclude with a reasonable degree of certainty that Russian help was crucial in elevating Trump to the Oval Office. Put simply, by changing the behavior of key players and altering the focus and content of mainstream news, Russian hackers reshaped the 2016 electoral dynamic. At the same time, Russian trolls used social media to target voting groups indispensable to a Trump victory or Clinton defeat. There are of course many arguments on offer that push against the idea that the Russians handed Trump his victory. Russia's goal was fomenting division, not electing Trump. Most of the Russian ads reportedly did not reference either the election or a candidate. Nor did they differ much from U.S.-based messaging that was already in play. Russian intervention did not surgically target Trump in key states. Finally, if WikiLeaks' releases of stolen email had truly affected the vote, Clinton's perceived honesty would have dropped in October. Jamieson, drawing from her four decades of research on the role of media in American elections, dispenses with these arguments through a forensic tracing of both Russian hackers' impact on media coverage as well as the ebbs and flows of Trump's polling support over the course of the campaign. Combining scholarly rigor with a bracing argument, Cyberwar shows that we can now be reasonably confident that Russian efforts helped put Trump in the White House"