Who will be in the White House? : predicting presidential elections / Randall J. Jones, Jr.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 133-142) and index.

1. Trial Heat Polls. Survey Methods.Lead Time of Surveys.Linking Surveys to Elections.Conclusion.Addendum: Trial Heat Equations for 2000 Election Scenarios.2. Bellwethers. Types of Bellwethers.States: Swingometric and Barometric Bellwethers.Counties As Bellwethers.Scenarios Using Bellwethers.Conclusion.Addendum: Bellwether Equations for 2000 Election Scenarios.3. Presidential Approval Ratings. Rationale.Establishing the Linkage.Conclusion.Addendum: Equations for 2000 Election Scenarios Using Presidential Approval Ratings.4. Other Public Opinion-Based Techniques. Exit Polls.Surveys of Voters' “Likes” and “Dislikes” of Candidates.Surveys of Past and Present Demographics: Ithiel de Sola Pool's “simulmatics”.Iowa Electronic Market.5. Judgment-Based Forecasting Techniques. Judgment-Based Regression: Budge and Farlie.Assessments of Key Factors Affecting Elections: Lichtman.Panels of Experts.Expected Utility Theory.Conclusion.6. Cycles in Presidential Elections. Cycles of Liberalism and Conservatism: Arthur M. Schlesinger, Sr.Cycles of Public Purpose and Private Interest: Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr.Two-Term Penalty.Another Approach to Two-Term Cycles.Conclusion.7. The Nomination Process and Campaigns. Primary Elections.Disorderly Conventions.Post-Convention Campaigns.Conclusion.8. Performance of the Economy. Retrospective Indicators.Prospective Indicators.Conclusion.Addendum: Equations for the 2000 Election Scenarios Using Selected Economic Indicators.9. Putting It All Together: Multivariate Forecasting Models. National-Level Models.State-Level Models.Forecast Scenarios for 2000 Election Using Multivariate Models.Conclusion.Addendum: A Note on Data Sources.