TY  - BOOK
AU  - Fisher,Len
TI  - Crashes, crises, and calamities: how we can use science to read the early-warning signs 
SN  - 9780465021024 (hardback)
AV  - HV 675 F533c 2011
U1  - 363.3463 
PY  - 2011///
CY  - New York
PB  - Basic Books
KW  - Primera Jornada de Catalogacion
KW  - Accidentes
KW  - Prevención
KW  - Accidents
KW  - Prevention
KW  - Natural disasters
KW  - Forecasting
KW  - Science
KW  - History
KW  - Social aspects
KW  - Scientists
N1  - Incluye referencias bibliográficas e índice; Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting
N2  - Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories
ER  -