Jones, Randall J.,  Jr.,   1941- <br/><br/>
Who will be in the White House? :  predicting presidential elections / 
Randall J. Jones, Jr. 
 - New York :  Longman,  c2002. 
 - xii, 164 pages :   illustrations ;   23 cm. 
<br/><br/>Includes bibliographical references (p. 133-142) and index. 
<br/><br/>1. Trial Heat Polls. Survey Methods.Lead Time of Surveys.Linking Surveys to Elections.Conclusion.Addendum: Trial Heat Equations for 2000 Election Scenarios.2. Bellwethers. Types of Bellwethers.States: Swingometric and Barometric Bellwethers.Counties As Bellwethers.Scenarios Using Bellwethers.Conclusion.Addendum: Bellwether Equations for 2000 Election Scenarios.3. Presidential Approval Ratings. Rationale.Establishing the Linkage.Conclusion.Addendum: Equations for 2000 Election Scenarios Using Presidential Approval Ratings.4. Other Public Opinion-Based Techniques. Exit Polls.Surveys of Voters' “Likes” and “Dislikes” of Candidates.Surveys of Past and Present Demographics: Ithiel de Sola Pool's “simulmatics”.Iowa Electronic Market.5. Judgment-Based Forecasting Techniques. Judgment-Based Regression: Budge and Farlie.Assessments of Key Factors Affecting Elections: Lichtman.Panels of Experts.Expected Utility Theory.Conclusion.6. Cycles in Presidential Elections. Cycles of Liberalism and Conservatism: Arthur M. Schlesinger, Sr.Cycles of Public Purpose and Private Interest: Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr.Two-Term Penalty.Another Approach to Two-Term Cycles.Conclusion.7. The Nomination Process and Campaigns. Primary Elections.Disorderly Conventions.Post-Convention Campaigns.Conclusion.8. Performance of the Economy. Retrospective Indicators.Prospective Indicators.Conclusion.Addendum: Equations for the 2000 Election Scenarios Using Selected Economic Indicators.9. Putting It All Together: Multivariate Forecasting Models. National-Level Models.State-Level Models.Forecast Scenarios for 2000 Election Using Multivariate Models.Conclusion.Addendum: A Note on Data Sources. 
<br/><br/><label>ISBN: </label>0321087291 (alk. paper) 9780321087294 (alk. paper) 
<br/><br/><label>LCCN: </label>2001038738 
<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Topical Terms: </label><br/>Presidents--Election--Forecasting.--United States<br/>Presidentes--Elecciones--Pronósticos--Estados Unidos<br/>Election forecasting--United States.<br/>Pronósticos electorales--Estados Unidos
<br/><br/><label>LC Class. No.: </label>JK 524  / J78w 2002 
<br/><br/><label>Dewey Class. No.: </label>324.973/001/12