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Crashes, crises, and calamities : how we can use science to read the early-warning signs / Len Fisher.

By: Material type: TextTextPublication details: New York : Basic Books, c2011.Description: xviii, 233 p. : ill. ; 22 cmISBN:
  • 9780465021024 (hardback)
  • 0465021026 (hardback)
  • 9780465023356 (ebook)
Subject(s): DDC classification:
  • 363.3463
LOC classification:
  • HV 675 F533c 2011
Contents:
Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting.
Summary: Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories.
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Holdings
Item type Current library Home library Collection Shelving location Call number Vol info Copy number Status Date due Barcode
Libro Libro Biblioteca Juan Bosch Biblioteca Juan Bosch Ciencias Sociales Ciencias Sociales (3er. Piso) HV 675 F533c 2011 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) 1 1 Available 00000108380

Incluye referencias bibliográficas e índice.

Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting.

Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories.

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